Illinois COVID-19 Tracking with Graphs

Updated 4/26/20 at 17:15.  I hadn’t updated for a while as other websites are getting better at also tracking this data.  Overall, tracking numbers of cases is only slightly useful, as there are clearly many more cases that are not being identified.  Tracking deaths is much more accurate as we are probably tracking most deaths related to COVID accurately.  Tracking the ratio of positive tests to total number of tests done is also useful.  You can see there was a clear increase in testing recently around April 22, with the ratio finally starting to go down.  Hopefully we will start having widespread antibody testing available soon.  I know the WHO recently announced that there is no evidence that antibodies will provide immunity; however, if you look at other coronavirus infections, it appears that antibodies do provide immunity, often for more than a year.  I suspect that some of the decline in new cases is related to some immunity in the community.  Otherwise, I would expect the new case counts to continue at a similar pace instead of decreasing.  Cases could be decreasing due to better social distancing (not really happening) or because of the introduction of widespread mask use, which should have been implemented at the beginning.  I understand saving n95 masks for healthcare workers, but the early statements that wearing masks may increase someone’s risk just seems to be flat out false information. It will be very interesting to see how historians look back on this pandemic.  The story is still evolving and it is bizarre being a witness to the evolution as it is happening.
Updated 4/9/20 at 23:15, 66 new deaths, 1344 new cases. IHME picks peak deaths now in only 3 days, but looks like a very gradual decline over another 10 days or so.
4/8/20, 82 new deaths, 1529 new cases.
Updated 4/7/20 at 18:15, 73 new deaths, 1287 new cases. Things still getting worse.  IHME predicts the worst for Illinois will be 9 days away, on April 16.
Updated 4/6/20 at 16:20, 33 new deaths, 1006 new cases.
Updated 4/5/20 at 23:15, 31 new deaths, 899 new cases. First day in a while that the ratio of positive tests to total tested went down.  Still too much day to day noise to put much hope in this number, but at least the number of deaths has not gone up the last two days.
Updated data 4/4/20 at 14:55, 33 new deaths, 1453 new cases, more tests, but still ratio of of positive tests to total tested is rising.
Updated data 4/3/20 at 15:30, 53 new deaths, 1209 new cases, ratio of positive to total test continues to trend upward, testing did increase 54% over the past 7 days compared to the prior 7 days, but it still would be better if we could do more testing
Updated data 4/2/20 at 16:20, 16 new deaths, 715 new cases, ratio of positive to total tested up slightly
Updated data 4/1/20 at 14:50, 42 new deaths, 986 new cases, added chart for numbers tested
Updated data 3/31/20 at 15:35, 27 new deaths, 938 new cases

I can never seem to find the data presented how I like it, so here is my attempt to track COVID-19 for the Illinois cases.  I’m using data taken from the COVID project.


Illinois number of new COVID-19 cases each day, as well as the total number of positive cases.

 


Illinois number of new COVID-19 deaths each day, as well as the total number of COVID-19 deaths.

 


Illinois Total People Tested, Negative Total, Positive Total

 


Illinois Ratios of Positive Cases to the Number Tested
I added this chart on April 1, 2020, as I believe that the number of positive cases relative to the total number of people tested may give some indication as to how much of the increase in cases is due to increased testing and how much is due to an actual increase in cases.  In other words, if the ratio stays stable, we are probably increasing our testing numbers proportionally to the number of new cases.  If we see the ratio going up, it means we are probably not increasing testing as rapidly as the cases are increased.

 

 

 

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